In these challenging geopolitical times, it’s imperative that Irish Government Departments resist the temptation to simply update their current Statements of Strategy. Instead, they must adopt a bold and comprehensive approach, rethinking these strategies from the ground up to address today’s evolving realities. A meaningful shift toward outcome-focused planning—paired with robust scenario planning—is no longer optional.

As the world navigates the uncertainties brought by the new Trump administration, the rise of populist politics across the EU, and heightened global economic and environmental challenges, Ireland must ensure its strategies are not only resilient but also adaptive. This means going beyond incremental changes and embracing a transformative mindset.

1. The Temptation to Update vs. the Need to Rethink

For many departments, the default response to strategic reviews is to tweak or update existing strategies. While this might seem efficient, it often leads to complacency—where outdated assumptions remain unchallenged, and emerging risks are underestimated.

Today’s environment demands more than surface-level adjustments. Departments need to ask themselves fundamental questions:

• Are the objectives set out in the last strategy still relevant in light of new global dynamics?
• Are we focusing on measurable outcomes that genuinely serve the public interest?
• How do we future-proof our policies against shocks like global trade disruptions, technological advancements, or climate crises?

By starting from first principles rather than relying on outdated frameworks, departments can ensure their strategies are robust and aligned with the2025 Programme for Government’s ambitious vision for reform, resilience, and progress.

2. The Power of Outcome-Focused Planning

The shift towardoutcome-based strategies ensures that departments are not just measuring their success by activities or outputs but by the actual difference made in people’s lives. For example:

• Instead of measuring how many housing units are built, focus on reducing homelessness rates.
• Rather than tracking the number of trade missions conducted, prioritize increased market diversification for Irish exports.

Outcome-focused strategies are inherently adaptive, allowing government efforts to remain relevant even as external conditions change. This aligns with the Programme for Government’s emphasis on delivering tangible results across economic growth, public services, and environmental sustainability.

3. Scenario Planning: A Key Tool for Strategic Foresight

At the heart of this strategic overhaul lies scenario planning, a tool that allows policymakers to anticipate and prepare for multiple potential futures. Scenario planning is particularly critical given today’s uncertainties, such as:

• U.S. Policy Shifts: The Trump administration’s stance on global trade, tax policy, and international relations could have significant implications for Ireland, especially for sectors like foreign direct investment and technology.
• EU Challenges: Rising populist movements across Europe threaten unity and economic stability, directly affecting Ireland’s position within the EU.
• Global Economic Trends: From inflationary pressures to supply chain vulnerabilities, the global economy is rife with uncertainties that demand proactive planning.

Through scenario planning, departments can map out these uncertainties and develop strategies that are agile, responsive, and aligned with Ireland’s long-term goals.

4. Aligning Strategy with the Programme for Government

The 2025 Programme for Government lays out a vision for securing Ireland’s future through economic resilience, environmental leadership, and social progress. To achieve this, scenario planning can serve as a contextual lens, helping departments assess:

• Economic resilience: How would different tax or trade scenarios impact Ireland’s competitiveness in attracting investment?
• Environmental goals: What are the implications of varied climate policies across the EU on Ireland’s renewable energy ambitions?
• Social cohesion: How can Ireland proactively address demographic shifts or migration challenges in a way that strengthens communities?

By integrating these considerations into their strategies, departments ensure alignment with national priorities while retaining the flexibility to adapt to changing circumstances.

5. Learning from Global Best Practices

Countries that have embraced scenario planning in their government strategies have reaped significant benefits. For example:

• Singapore has used scenario planning for decades to navigate its geopolitical vulnerabilities and maintain economic resilience.
• The Netherlands employs this approach to manage long-term challenges, such as climate change and urban planning.

Ireland can take inspiration from these models to enhance its strategic capabilities and position itself as a leader in forward-thinking governance.

6. A Call to Action

As Irish Government Departments embark on the development of their new Statements of Strategy, they must seize the opportunity to embrace this moment for transformative change. This requires:

1. Rethinking, not revising: Challenge existing frameworks and focus on building strategies from the ground up.
2. Focusing on outcomes: Prioritize measurable impacts that matter most to citizens.
3. Leveraging scenario planning: Use this tool to navigate uncertainties and align strategic decisions with the Programme for Government.

By doing so, Ireland can ensure it remains agile and resilient, capable of thriving in an unpredictable world while delivering meaningful progress for its people.

Over the past 20 years John Crimmins has supported the development of over 70 strategies across the public, private, and non-profit sectors in Ireland and abroad. John was also a civil servant for 15 years working across four Government Departments.